A few words about my 3-day trip last week to Nigeria, where I visited the commercial capital Lagos -- a sprawling, chaotic, dirty, noisy and wonderfully energetic city of 10m or so (feels like more) -- as well as the somewhat-more-refined political capital Abuja. This was my first work-related trip to Sub Saharan Africa (outside of South Africa) and was certainly the most intense "third world" city experience I have had. From the moment I, bleary-eyed at 6am, stepped out of the sealed environment of BA business class into the crumbling corridors of Murtala Muhammed airport, it was clear that my time inLagos would not be dull. The city assaults you (figuratively, sometimes literally!). People are everywhere, in a combination of frenetic motion and stillness (lots of people just hanging around) and everywhere surrounded by derelict infrastructure. I am told that most recent decent railroad in Africa north of Johannesburg is the east African line built by the British in 1910; as this indicates, it's been a long time since much was invested in Africa, and the city, bustling as it is, projects an aura of long-term neglect.
My visit started off with a complication when the car I had ordered was not waiting for me, and of course there was no taxi stand where I could pick up a ride into down (indeed I saw no evidence of a taxi fleet in Lagos, although I there were a few taxis in Abuja). Here is an easy test for whether a country is truly an 'emerging market' or not; if a traveller flies into the airport for the first time, can he or she easily and safely get from the airport to a hotel? By this test Nigeria clearly qualifies as emerging. Standing at the airport entrance with a befuddled look on my face, I was clearly the white guy who didn't have a ride and quickly attracted attention of many peddlers. Fortunately my phone worked, so I ignored an increasingly vocal group of would-be chauffeurs and managed to contact my hotel and to track down the driver, who was in fact at the airport but was, they said, unable to drive up to the pick-up point. Reason unclear. I was directed me to wheel my luggage self-assuredly past the teeming crowds, through a gate, down an airport access road against traffic until I eventually got to another gate where my guy was indeed waiting, having a relaxed smoke with some other drivers.
Said driver greeted me, finished his cigarette and drove me into town at breakneck speed through the morning rushhour in a symphonic performance of horn honking, shouting and fist shaking that is doubtless very common in that part of the world, filled with swerves, sudden stops, and countless close calls (measured in centimeters). For me, the most harrowing aspect of driving in Lagos was actually how close the speeding drivers came to hordes of pedestrians walking along the road -- most of whom are simply trying to cross the street -- where a mistake of a few inches would mean a lost limb or worse. Somehow the game of brinkmanship always manages to resolve itself without harm to anyone.
I made it to my hotel, the Federal Palace -- said to be the best in Nigeria and up to the standard of a mid-market Marriott Courtyard (but at $350 a night!) -- and eventually met up with a few colleagues with whom I spent the next couple of days meeting companies (mostly banks -- but also a sugar refinery, 2 photos from this below) in Lagos. We then flew to Abuja where I spent a day seeing some government agencies and as well as the IMF. It was fascinating. Despite all of Nigeria's very visible problems I came back feeling optimistic about the place. I met enough smart, articulate, hard working Nigerians that seem committed to making the country work that I did have the sense there is a shot at making some real headway against Nigeria's historical problems (corruption, underinvestment, political turmoil). There are so many 'easy wins', like building a few power stations so the entire country does not need to rely upon diesel generators. Politics are probably most important, and given the turmoil in North Africa nowadays, as well as in countries even closer to Nigeria like Ivory Coast it is hard to make predictions with much confidence. However if Nigeria's April elections go reasonably well, the next few years could be an exciting time for the country.
My final hours in Nigeria were a bit of a reality check against getting too optimistic. Battling through traffic in Abuja my driver took some creative short cuts (driving on dirt makeshift dirt roads parallel to the highway for miles) and at one point was ambushed by a 'policeman' (at least someone wearing a policeman-like uniform) who literally jumped in front of the car and then called his buddies over. Before I knew it several uniformed guys were standing around our car, another was sitting in the passenger seat; a few had large-looking guns. A prolonged negotiation ensued, during which my driver got surprisingly animated in making his case for innocence, seemingly unintimidated by the guns and at one point appearing to have won over at least one of the 'policemen'. After 30 minutes of this, I was starting to wonder both whether I would miss my flight and whether I might be in some danger. However at no point did anyone acknowledge my presence, much less threaten me, and in the end after 40 minutes of negotiations we were released, my driver having given up his driver's license, which he told me he would reclaim later that day for a 2000 naira fine ($15). I made my fight, and in the end it felt like a happy ending.
